Private Wireless RAN Revenues up ~40 Percent in 2023, According to Dell’Oro Group

According to a newly published forecast report by Dell’Oro Group, a trusted source for market information about the telecommunications, security networks, and data center industries, Private Wireless Radio Access Network (RAN) revenue growth slowed in the fourth quarter on a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis; however, full-year revenues still accelerated around 40 percent in 2023, propelling private wireless to comprise around 2 percent of the overall RAN market.

“Although public RAN is still fueling the lion’s share of the overall RAN capex and the overall investment levels are tracking below some of the initial projections provided by the vendors in the early part of the 5G enterprise hype cycle, the fact of the matter is that private wireless is now growing at a formidable pace,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “This stands in contrast to public RAN and enterprise WLAN – both segments are projected to contract in 2024,” continued Pongratz.

Additional highlights from the April 2024 Private Wireless Report:

• The evolving scope of private wireless taken together with the fact that the $20 B+ enterprise RAN opportunity remains largely untapped is spurring interest from a broad array of participants across the ecosystem. Still, the traditional RAN suppliers are currently well-positioned in this initial phase.
• Top 3 Private Wireless RAN suppliers in 2023 include Huawei, Nokia, and Ericsson.
• Top 3 Private Wireless RAN suppliers in 2023 excluding China include Nokia, Ericsson, and Samsung.
• The overall Private Wireless RAN forecast is mostly unchanged (+3 percent relative to the last report), reflecting the fact that our bottom-up vendor analysis vs. the initial top-down calculations is improving the market size estimates. In addition, the industry is now past the hype phase and in a better place from a forecasting perspective.
• The high-level message that we have communicated for some time has not changed—private wireless is a massive opportunity, but it will take some time for enterprises to embrace private cellular technologies.
• Total Private Wireless RAN revenues are projected to grow at a 21 percent CAGR over the next five years, while public RAN revenues are set to decline at a 2 percent CAGR over the same time period.
• The underlying technology mix has also not changed. 5G is dominating in China, while LTE is currently dominating outside of China. Private 5G RAN revenues are expected to reach the $1 B to $2 B range by 2028.